A Defect in Dempster-Shafer Theory
نویسنده
چکیده
By analyzing the relationships among chance, weight of evidence and degree of belief, it is shown that the assertion \chances are special cases of belief functions" and the assertion \Dempster's rule can be used to combine belief functions based on distinct bodies of evidence" together lead to an inconsistency in Dempster-Shafer theory. To solve this problem, some fundamental postulates of the theory must be rejected. A new approach for uncertainty management is introduced, which shares many intuitive ideas with D-S theory, while avoiding this problem.
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